Current and Potential Future Distribution of Endemic Salvia ceratophylloides Ard. (Lamiaceae)

Human activities and climate change are the main factors causing habitat loss, jeopardising survival of many species, especially those with limited range, such as endemic species. Recently, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used in conservation biology to assess their extinction risk, environmental dynamics, potential distribution. This study analyses potential, current future range Salvia ceratophylloides Ard., an perennial Lamiaceae family that occurs exclusively a suburban area city Reggio Calabria (southern Italy). The MaxEnt model was employed configure using bioclimatic edaphic variables, predict suitability relation two scenarios (SSP245 SSP585) for periods 2021–2040 2041–2060. field survey, which spanned 5 years (2017–2021), involved 17 occurrence points. According results model, is 237.321 km2, considering preferred substrates land-use constraints re-estimated 41.392 km2. obtained from SSP245 scenario shows decrease suitable 35% period 28% 2041–2060 period. SSP585 increase hosting 167% 171% Assessing variation related impacts makes it possible define priority areas reintroduction situ conservation. Identifying presumably at risk or, on contrary, paramount importance management plans ceratophylloides.